Logistic regression analysis to predict prognosis in COVID-19 patients at tertiary care center in Rewa, Madhya Pradesh, India

Abstract

Introduction

SARS-CoV-2 was declared as a global pandemic by World Health

Organization (WHO) owing to its high infectivity and pathogenicity that has

been quickly entangling the world since its first reported outbreak in China in

December, 2019. The main objectives of the present work were to quantify

the influence of age, duration of hospitalization, duration of presenting

symptoms and comorbidities on the probability of mortality from COVID-19

disease.

Methods

This was a cohort study involving adult in-patients (30th April to 31st

December’20) with laboratory-confirmed (RT-PCR) COVID-19 at Sanjay

Gandhi and Gandhi Memorial Hospital, Rewa, Madhya Pradesh, India, whose data was retrospectively

extracted from hospital records. These files were selected randomly attributing to 25% of the total number of

in-patients fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria. Out of the 131 cases, 26 cases were deceased while

105 cases were recovered. A binary logistic regression analysis was employed to quantify various factors

responsible for mortality among COVID-19 patients.

Results

The result showed that age & duration of presenting symptoms had a positively significant influence on

COVID- 19 mortality. Based on the binary logistic regression model, there is an increased risk of COVID-19

mortality of 1.028 per year of age & 1.213 times per day of presenting symptoms. Further analysis also showed

that COVID-19 patients who was hospitalized since 10 days, was approximately 8 times less likely to die as

compared to a COVID-19 patient who was hospitalized since 1 day. This is explained by the presence of co

morbidities among older aged patients as reported in previous literature.

Discussion

Among several factors contributing to mortality; in particular, older age and duration of presenting symptoms

was associated with higher odds of in-hospital death, while duration of hospitalization with lower odds of in

hospital death. The current study confirmed that increased age was associated with death in patients with

COVID-19.